We are certainly off to a cold start this moring over much of the Island, with readings well below the freezing mark. Most of you are off from work, but if you do need to head out you’re not going to be happy in a hoodie!

The weather across much of the Province today will be unremarkable. We will all see a sunny start, except in Labrador West, where flurries and light snow will fall throughout much of the day, totaling a few centimeters. Highs will peak in the single digits below the freezing mark for most of the region, except closer to -10 in Labrador West.

The weather will turn this afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure approaches the Island from the south. This will spread snow and ice pellets onto the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas late this afternoon. A Special Weather Statement is in effect for the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas ahead of this incoming weather maker. However, I think it will need to be expanded westward by the Weather Office in Gander this morning.

The overnight computer model guidance has shifted the heaviest snow to the west, due to the forecast track of the low shifting a bit more west. This is evidenced in the trend. As you can see below, the bullseye of heaviest snowfall has moved from the Avalon to just over the last 3 model runs. And there is support for this in other guidance as well.

We are still looking at a maximum snowfall in the 10-15 cm range, with locally higher amounts possible. However, it may very well be from Bonavista Bay to Connaigre and not on the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas. As of this morning, it looks like the eastern regions will see snow this evening, going to rain through a period of ice pellets and freezing rain.

I’m still working on the forecast and I’ll have a more detailed update for you later today.

Thanks for logging on and have a good one!

Eddie