Monday is quiet ahead of Ernesto’s arrival tonight
Our Monday is starting off on the quiet side, but unfortunately, it’s not going to stay that way. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over much of the Island this afternoon as Hurricane Ernesto approaches from the south. The showers and thunderstorms will most likely occur this afternoon over much of the Island south of the Great Northern Peninsula. There will also be an area of rain, and possible thunderstorms, along a cold front moving from northwest to southeast in Labrador.
Today’s temperatures will generally top out in the teens and 20s across the Province. It will be quite humid on the Island this afternoon as dewpoints climb into the upper teens. Humidex values will likely be near 30 for many areas.
HURRICANE ERNESTO: LATEST INFO AND FORECAST
As of 6:30 AM NDT, Hurricane Ernesto was located 935 km south of Cape Race. Here are the storm stats:
- Category: 1
- Max Sustained Winds: 140 km/h (85 mph)
- Moving North at 33 km/h (21 mph)
All forecasts continue to point toward the storm passing just southeast of Cape Race between roughly midnight and 3 AM Tuesday. The biggest impact from the track will be heavy rain over the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas and possible storm surge over southwest-facing shorelines overnight. This track will keep the highest wind speeds well offshore. However, some gusts from the east or north of 60 to 80 km/h will be possible overnight over eastern parts of the Avalon. Specifally over exposed areas.
The heaviest fall on the Avalon Peninsula will arrive between 9 PM and 10 PM and will be over by 3 AM. Rainfall rates will be intense over much of the Avalon, possibly exceeding 25 mm per hour in some areas. A Rainfall Warning is currently in effect for the Southwest and Southeast Avalon along with St. John’s and vicinity. I wouldn’t be surprised if that gets expanded north, as well.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 30 to 40 mm range, with some areas seeing as much as 60 mm. Remember, the rain will fall in a short window, so even though that amount may not sound like a lot, getting 60 mm of rain in 3 hours may cause some issues with runoff and local flooding.
Stay tuned for more updates through the day.