Provincial deficit projected to rise to almost $1 billion in fall fiscal update
In his first fall fiscal update, Finance Minister Craig Pardy is projecting the provincial deficit to rise to almost $1 billion.
The provincial deficit is now projected at $948 million, compared to the $372 million forecast in Budget 2025.
But Pardy also says across multiple economic indicators, Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy is performing better than expected.
- Newfoundland and Labrador is projected to lead all provinces with 5.3 per cent real Gross Domestic Product growth in 2025.
- Employment is expected to remain on par with last year, with 245,600 people employed.
- Household income is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent largely due to wage gains.
- Housing starts are weaker than in 2024 but remain higher than the 10-year average for the province.
- Both oil and mining production have increased, but capital investment is forecast to decline by 6.3 per cent as major project construction activity has slowed.
- Fisheries and aquaculture have performed well, despite global market conditions.
- Population growth has continued, but at a slower pace as net international migration levels were lower due to reduced federal targets.
- Inflation has slowed and interest rates are lower, down from 2.75 per cent in April to the current rate of 2.25 per cent.
- Retail sales and tourism indicators remain strong.
The 2025 Fiscal and Economic Update is available here.