Province reports slightly improved deficit in fall fiscal update

News, Politics October 31st, 2023

The provincial deficit has improved slightly since budget day, Finance Minister Siobhan Coady announced the fall fiscal update on Tuesday.

The projected deficit for 2023-24 is $154 million, slightly lower than the $160 million projected in March. Other highlights include:

Revenue is projected to be higher than forecast by $204 million for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, largely due to offshore exploration forfeitures;
Most expenses remain the same as projected at budget, with a few exceptions including increases negotiated in collective bargaining agreements and debt expenses due to rising interest rates; and
The average price of oil for 2023-24 has been revised to US$85 from the Budget 2023 projection of US$86. The Canada to United States exchange rate has been adjusted to 74.3 cents from the Budget 2023 forecast of 75.7 cents.

Most economic indicators for the province are expected to remain on track to meet or exceed the Budget 2023 forecast, with opportunities in oil and gas, mining, aquaculture, wind-hydrogen, technology and the film and television sectors:

For the year as a whole, employment is forecast to increase by 2.2 per cent, while the unemployment rate is forecast to decrease by 1.2 percentage points to average 10.1 per cent. If realized, this would be the lowest annual unemployment rate since consistent records began in 1976;
Consumer spending is expected to remain strong, with the value of retail sales forecast to increase by 4.0 per cent; and
Population growth continued for the tenth straight quarter. On an annual basis, the province’s population increased by 7,022 persons, or 1.3 per cent, from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, the largest annual increase since 1972.

The 2023 Fiscal and Economic Update is available here.

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