Forecast Summary

Rain and showers will be found over much of the Island today south of the Great Northern Peninsula. The rain will end Wednesday evening as the cold front dips south. The cold front will send colder air flooding back across the Island and readings will go from a few degrees above freezing Wednesday afternoon to a few below come Thursday morning. This front sets the stage for our late-week winter storm. More on that below.

Labrador will see snow easing overnight as it moves offshore. A cold front sneaks into the west and temperatures will plummet into the minus teens by Wednesday morning. That front will push its way east and south on Wednesday. Morning “warmth” for some areas of the mid-coast and Straits will be erased as colder air swoops in. Temperatures will fall below freezing during the afternoon.

Late Week Winter Storm

An area of low pressure will slowly track south of the Island between Thursday evening and Saturday morning. The snail-like movement of this low, in combination with it tapping into abundant moisture, will set the stage for significant, long-duration winter storm for southern and eastern parts of the Island, and even potentially central and northeastern areas as well. Snow and ice will arrive on the Island Thursday evening and in the east it will not end until Saturday morning.

The ECCC NL Weather Office in Gander has issued a Special Weather Statement from Burgeo to St. John’s and the Bonavista Peninsula to the Terra Nova area. The highlight of the alert is the mention that more than 50 cm of snow is possible in some areas.

I’m in full agreement with this. And as of now, the question is, where is the heaviest snow going to fall? unfortunately, that’s a loaded question. There is so much uncertainty in the low’s track that pinning that down is difficult. What I can say is the area most likely to see heavy snowfall appears, for the time being, to be somewhere from the northern Avalon and St. John’s to the Bonavista Peninsula. The image below depicts that as well by showing you the area most likely to see more than 30 cm of snow.

However, it would be best if you kept in mind that while a projection like this takes into account uncertainty, we can still see dramatic changes in forecasts in the short range due to the lack of agreement on where the low will track. I’m hoping we start to see more consensus by this Wednesday; at that point, I’ll have more concrete numbers for you.

What I will say is that if you reside in southern, eastern and central Newfoundlnad, expect a very impactful winter storm that will require a big cleanup in some areas come Saturday morning.

TONIGHT

Newfoundland

Increasing cloud. Showers arrive in the southwest. Lows of -2 to +2.

Labrador

Turning mostly cloudy as the snow ends. Lows of -3 in the east to -14 in the north and west and around Upper Lake Melville.

WEDNESDAY

Newfoundland:

Periods of rain south of the Northern Peninsula. Cloudy to mostly cloudy on the Norhtern Peninsula. Highs of 5 to 8. LIght westerlies.

Labrador

Partly cloudy. Highs of -10 in the west and north to near 1 on the coast. Temperatures on the coast will fall during the day.

THURSDAY

Newfoundland

Mostly cloudy. Snow arrives in the south and east late in the day and becomes heavy at times overnight. The snow will change to ice pellets and/or freezing rain on the Burin and parts of the Avalon Peninsulas overnight. Highs of -1 to -3.

Labrador

Sun and cloud with a high near -10.

FRIDAY

Newfoundland

Snow likely for southern, western, central and eastern Newfoundlnad. Snow will mix with ice pellets over portions of eastern and southeastern Newofundland at times. Freezing rain possible in the southeast. Temperatuers near -1 for highs. Heavy snow accumulation likely over eastern areas that do not see a change to ice.

Labrador

Mostly sunny with high near -8.

SATURDAY

Newfoundland

Snow ends in the east by mid-morning. Then skies remain cloudy to mostly cloudy. Highs near 0.

Labrador

Mostly cloudy with flurries in the west. Highs near -2.

SUNDAY

Newfoundland

Mostly cloudy with highs of 1 to 4.

Labrador
Mostly cloudy with highs near 0.