Areas of the Avalon Peninsula have seen an astounding amount of rain since Friday. Rainfall totals for many areas around St. John’s have exceeded 100 mm! To put that into perspective, the average rainfall for the month of September is 130 mm.
More rain is on the way for much of the Island tonight, due to an area of low pressure spinning to our south. On the Avalon, an additional 20-30 mm of rain will fall by Tuesday morning. Areas to the west will also see rain overnight, but amounts should generally be a little lower. The exception will be on the South Coast, where rainfall amounts may be up to 20 or 30 mm. Lows tonight Island-wide, will be near 10.
Due to this low pressure centre, a Rainfall Warning is in effect for the Avalon Peninsula, a Special Weather Statement is in effect for Channel-Port aux Basques for heavy rainfall tonight and a Wind Warning is in effect for Burgeo-Ramea and Connaigre. Areas in the Wind Warning will see winds gusting near 100 km/h tonight, before subsiding by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday will see the bulk of the rain pushing back into central, western and northwestern Newfoundland. Areas south and east will see the rain go over to drizzle in the morning, with very little additional rainfall expected. Highs will be in the 10 to 15 range Island-wide. Skies remain cloudy to mostly cloudy.
Rain will continue to fall across northwest Newfoundland and southeast Labrador into Wednesday, before finally ending. Rainfall totals by Wednesday morning will be significant in some areas. The map below shows that nicely, but keep in mind some of it on the Avalon has already fallen.
Across the Big Land, quiet weather is expected tonight with lows near 5. Tuesday will see highs in the mid teens to near 20, with a chance of showers late in the day for Churchill Falls and Labrador City. Skies tonight and tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy. Except cloudy where there are showers. There is the risk of frost overnight in the southeast.
Hurricane Jose is spinning out in the Atlantic as a Category 2 storm. Winds are well over 100 km/h and gusting even higher. Over the next 5 days, Jose will pose no threat to land.
As we go into next week, Jose will turn north and will head up the eastern seaboard of the United States. The big question is where will Jose go? There is a fair amount of uncertainty in that right now. The “spaghetti plots” will show by next week there is an immense amount of spread. Each line represents a computer model’s forecast track for the model. There are a few lines over Newfoundland, meaning there is a chance the storm tracks our way. With so much time between now and then, this is nothing to worry about today… but it’s something to keep an eye on in the meantime
Have a great night and stay dry!